Market Overview

Risk tone muted with yen and aussie steady before BoJ and RBA decisions 

ADFX Team

Market Recap 

XAUUSD 
XAUUSD traversed a 108.18 range, equal to 2.53% of the open, marking a five-day high at 4369.5 at 17:07 after setting the session low at 4261.32 at 01:00. It finished the session at 4308.8, a gain of 33.49 (0.78%). The open was 4275.31, and the close settled below the intraday midpoint, leaving price in the lower half of the day’s range by the bell. Intraday action featured a low printed at the session start, a steady climb into the afternoon peak above the 4350 figure, and a subsequent pullback that left the market closing above 4300 but well under the day’s top. From a higher-timeframe perspective, the H4 50-period SMA stood at 4290.85, with the settlement above that reference, while the H4 MACD signal remained below zero at -1.2. On the daily chart, spot continued to trade beneath the 50-day SMA at 4572.05 and above the lower Bollinger Band at 4125.45; the D1 MACD stayed negative at -97.54. The day’s structure placed the close roughly between 4300 and 4320 into the final minutes, while the earlier push through 4350 defined the session’s upside extension. Overall, the tape showed a low at the open, a mid-session breakout to the 5-day high, and a retreat into a sub-midrange close, with the finish above the H4 50-SMA and well below the D1 50-SMA. 

EURUSD 
EURUSD spanned 0.00539 on Monday, equal to 0.47% of the open, with an early low at 1.15674 set at 00:10 and a session high at 1.16213 printed at 08:14. The pair closed at 1.15899, up 0.00156 or 0.135% on the day, leaving the finish above the open but in the lower half of the day’s range. The path featured a dip in the first minutes of trade, a rise into the European morning that carried through the 1.1600 figure to 1.16213, and a retreat into the New York afternoon that left the market back under 1.1600 by the close. The 1.1600 handle acted as an intraday pivot, with trade both sides of the level before settlement. On higher timeframes, daily context shows price ending just below the 20‑day simple moving average at 1.15983, while the 50‑day sits higher at 1.16711. On the intraday side, the close was fractionally below the H1 21‑EMA at 1.15968. Momentum readings were mixed across timeframes: H1 RSI14 registered 37.24 at session end, while H4 RSI14 was 68.51. With the high at 1.16213 and the low at 1.15674, the close at 1.15899 was roughly 42% up from the day’s floor, indicating sellers regained some territory after the morning high. No tick volume data were provided. The session’s key reference points into the next trade date are the 1.15674 low, the 1.1600 round figure as a nearby pivot, and the 1.16213 intraday peak, with the daily moving averages noted above.

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

No major economic data was released. Attention now shifts to policy decisions: at 05:30 server time, the Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision, with the previous policy rate at 0.75 percent; two hours later at 07:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia sets policy, having previously kept the cash rate at 4.35 percent. Statements and any subsequent remarks will be parsed for guidance on inflation dynamics and policy outlook, which can shape rate-path expectations. As a simple guide, a higher-than-expected rate or unexpectedly hawkish guidance would tend to firm tightening expectations. With both decisions landing in a thin data window, market focus will be acute; JPY and AUD rates and FX could see brief bursts of volatility around the release times. No consensus forecasts were provided here, so the prior settings serve as the reference points into both announcements. 

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