On Wednesday, the latest Australian Monthly CPI Indicator showed headline inflation rising by 2.1% year-on-year in May, down from 2.4% in April—marking the slowest annual increase since October 2024. The trimmed mean CPI—the RBA’s preferred core inflation gauge—also eased to 2.4% YoY, its lowest level since November 2021. RBA Policy Expectations Shift With inflation slowing significantly and falling to the…

Tensions in the Middle East took a dramatic turn on Monday after U.S. President Trump announced a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran, following nearly two weeks of intense military confrontation. The ceasefire—reportedly brokered through Qatar—came after a series of retaliatory missile and drone strikes that had destabilized the region and rattled global financial markets over the past…

Global equities opened the week on a weaker note, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions following U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Meanwhile, last week’s central bank decisions were largely in line with expectations, prompting markets to shift focus toward upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments. Market Focus: Data and Geopolitical Events With most major central banks now adopting a data-dependent…

The central bank events on Thursday highlighted diverging monetary policy paths, with the Bank of England (BoE) holding rates steady while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) delivered another rate cut—bringing its benchmark rate back to zero for the first time since its tightening cycle began in 2022. Policy Divergence at Play The BoE’s decision to keep rates at 5.25%, as…

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, as widely expected. The latest dot plot from the June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) still suggests two rate cuts in 2025. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone, urging markets not to place too much confidence in that outlook.  He highlighted ongoing inflation risks tied to…